Leading Through The Fog

What This Year of Uncertainty Taught Me

We speak about uncertainty as something external (markets, regulators, global events) but it is also deeply internal: boundaries disappear or blur, relationships change, definitions of success are unclear, and people respond in unexpected ways during moments of crisis.

Over the past year of acute uncertainty, I saw employees and leaders naturally slip into survival modes. I watched many HR departments delay action and initiatives, rising tensions within Executive teams and between Executives and Boards, job hugging motivated by fear, and hiring freezes “until things settle down again”.

Here are the lessons I’m taking forward:

1. Psychological Safety Is Not Soft

Uncertainty exposes fragility in leadership. Many leaders try to project unwavering confidence, adopting a professional “brave face.” Yet when no one feels safe enough to ask basic questions, silence becomes misattributed to consensus or leads to paralysis.

Psychological safety is not about making difficult things easy. It is about making difficult things discussable.

It turns fear into feedback instead of whispers. It enables teams to say:

“This target is unreasonable under current constraints.”

“We need a different approach. Here’s an idea…”

“I don’t know how to meet this expectation, and I need help.”

Teams without safety go into freeze: compliance, superficial agreement, and hidden disengagement. Teams with safety go into constructive fight: challenge, clarity, experimentation, problem-solving.

In other words, psychological safety doesn’t cushion reality. It gives people the courage to face it together.

2. Results Require Systemic Supports, Not Heroics

A common coping mechanism in chaos is to look for heroes. You see it everywhere: senior leaders leaning harder on their “stars”, HR teams stretching themselves thinner, managers asking their high performers to do “one more sprint.”

Heroics feel noble, but they are ultimately unsustainable. When success relies on personal endurance, you are not running an organization. You are running an extraction strategy.

This year made it crystal clear that outcomes are generated by systems not by individual stamina. When the scaffolding is strong, average performers do good work and great talent thrives. When the scaffolding is weak, even high performers eventually collapse.

Systemic supports include:

I have witnessed how systems either amplify negative behaviours or help people metabolize natural reactions into direction and purpose. High performance should not be an accident of willpower, where we white-knuckle our way to results, but the predictable result of well-built structures.

3. Strategy Is What You Continue Doing When Everything Else Is Shaking

Strategy is not the deck you presented at the retreat. Strategy is the discipline of staying anchored to your principles when everything around you is in motion.

A year of uncertainty revealed the painful truth that many organizations don’t truly have a strategy. They have assumptions, preferences, and default behaviours that may evaporate under pressure.

The healthiest organizations I saw did not react to every tremor. They moved slower when needed and faster when possible, but they moved dependably because their non-negotiables were clear:

  • What drives value
  • What they will and will not trade off
  • Why they invest where they invest
  • What “good” looks like in lean times and in strong times.

For HR, this is not a theoretical exercise. Strategy lives inside your frameworks:

The lesson I took from this year: When uncertainty arrives, strategy is not what changes; it’s what remains.

4. Transparency Has Edges – Use It Intelligently

I’ve been a strong advocate for transparency throughout my career. But I am not blind to the downsides of excessive transparency without context. It can become noise, create alarm, or lead to distrust.

People do not need access to every internal debate, every unfinished thought, or every modelling iteration. They need:

  • Clarity of purpose: Why does this matter?
  • Context for their role: What does it mean for me?
  • Boundaries of influence: Where can I contribute, and where are others accountable?

Too little transparency breeds rumours, suspicion and disengagement. Too much transparency, without appropriate boundaries, amplifies anxiety and distracts everyone from doing actual work.

Effective transparency is anchored in leadership maturity:

  • Share the why, not every what
  • Explain decisions, not every option considered
  • Name uncertainty honestly, then frame how you will navigate it
  • Protect confidential information without apology

The leadership lesson is that transparency is relational, not transactional. It’s an act of stewardship. To be an effective leader, especially during times of uncertainty, you must select the right information to share, at the right time, in the right way, to enable people to act while not burdening them with the weight of every decision you carry.

5. Culture is the Outcome

Culture is not the values on the wall. It is the sum of what you recognize, reward, and repeat.

This year, I watched organizations reveal who they really are:

  • Some promoted the loudest voices
  • Some rewarded short-term wins and ignored long-term trust
  • Others coached, clarified expectations, and held people accountable with dignity

Culture shows up in micro-practices:

  • Who gets information first
  • Who gets flexibility
  • How people respond to mistakes
  • How decisions are communicated
  • Where leadership intervenes and where it stays silent

Every choice solidifies norms. Every exception becomes precedent. Culture is what you produce by design or by neglect.

Moving Forward

Uncertainty isn’t going away. But organizations that invest in effective strategies, systems, and human-centred leadership will emerge stronger, more resilient, and more cohesive.

The lessons of this past year are clear:

  • Build psychological safety so people can face reality together.
  • Create systems and structures that make high performance sustainable, not dependent on heroics.
  • Anchor your actions in strategy that persists, even when circumstances shift.
  • Exercise disciplined transparency that informs and empowers without overwhelming.
  • Recognize that culture is the sum of every choice, not a poster on the wall.

When leaders commit to these principles, uncertainty ceases to be only a threat; it becomes an opportunity to strengthen the organization, clarify purpose, and demonstrate the value of thoughtful and intentional HR leadership.

My advice to you: the work ahead is not about predicting the next disruption. It is about designing an organization, and HR practices, that can thrive no matter what comes next.

I champion stronger solutions through sharing of diverse of perspectives, experience, and expertise.

Kathleen Jinkerson, VP HR & Total Rewards Solutions

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